VNAT releases multiple scenarios for 2026 and 2031, with Q1 results of 6.76 million, up 12.4%
On April 23, 2026, Nguyen Trung Khanh, Director General of the Vietnam National Administration of Tourism (VNAT), officially released short-term growth scenarios for 2026 and long-term growth scenarios through 2031. In the first quarter of 2026, foreign arrivals to Vietnam reached 6.76 million (up 12.4% year on year), domestic travelers reached 37 million, and tourism revenue reached 267 trillion VND (about 1.6 trillion yen). Building on these results, VNAT is drawing up a growth strategy on both the full-year 2026 and five-year axes.
Two scenarios for 2026: positive and negative
VNAT's full-year 2026 outlook presents two scenarios depending on the stability of the global economy.
In the positive scenario (if the global economy is stable), the targets are 25 million foreign tourists, 150 million domestic travelers, and total tourism revenue of 1.12 trillion VND (about 6.72 billion yen). In the negative scenario (in the case of prolonged conflict and global economic stagnation), it's revised down to 22.5 million foreigners and 130 million domestic travelers.
The negative scenario also gives a quarterly breakdown, projecting Q2 at 5 million foreigners and 35 million domestic, Q3 at 4.8 million foreigners and 35 million domestic, and Q4 at 5.9 million foreigners and 23 million domestic.
| Indicator | Positive | Negative | Q1 results |
|---|---|---|---|
| Foreign tourists | 25 million | 22.5 million | 6.76 million |
| Domestic travelers | 150 million | 130 million | 37 million |
| Total tourism revenue | 1.12 trillion VND (about 6.7 billion yen) | Not disclosed | 267兆VND（約1.6兆円） |
Three long-term scenarios through 2031: 35 million even in the conservative case
For long-term growth through 2031 as well, VNAT presented three tiers of scenarios: conservative, baseline, and optimistic.
The conservative scenario assumes annual growth of 8 to 10%, projecting 35 to 38 million foreign arrivals to Vietnam by 2030. The baseline scenario aims for 40 to 45 million at 12 to 15% growth, and the optimistic scenario for 45 to 50 million at 15 to 18% growth.
| Scenario | Annual growth rate | 2030 foreigner target |
|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 8〜10% | 35 to 38 million |
| Baseline | 12〜15% | 40 to 45 million |
| Optimistic | 15〜18% | 45 to 50 million |
Background—Southeast Asian tourism competition and structural reform
Vietnam boasts the third-highest visitor numbers in Southeast Asia after Thailand (35 million a year) and Malaysia (25 million a year), overtaking Singapore. As Bloomberg described it as "the fastest-growing tourist destination in Southeast Asia," tailwinds include eased visa policies (expanded e-visa, 90-day visa exemption), a surge in low-cost carrier routes, andthe expansion of the e-visa system.is a tailwind.
Meanwhile, VNAT's Director General Khanh pointed out that "over 90% of Vietnam's roughly 4,000 travel companies are small and micro enterprises," highlighting the industry's structural challenges as well. Amending the 2017 Tourism Law, establishing overseas promotion bases, and advancing digital and green transformation are cited as priority tasks.
Reactions from industry insiders and social media
The CEO of a Ho Chi Minh City travel company commented, "The 25-million target is well within reach, but the issue is the repeat-visitor rate and length of stay. With one-off visits, you can see the ceiling on revenue." The general manager of a foreign-affiliated hotel in Hanoi took a positive view: "Vietnam's pace of infrastructure development is faster than neighboring countries'. If airport expansion and rail speed-ups are realized, 50 million is not a dream." Meanwhile, a Vietnamese travel blogger pointed out on social media, "The 150-million domestic-travel target is probably achievable, but overtourism measures aren't keeping up."
Impact on Japanese travelers and business people
Visitor numbers from Japan to Vietnam are on the rise, and if VNAT's growth scenarios are realized, there are benefits for Japanese travelers too. More air routes, new hotel openings, anddigital arrival card,simplified entry procedures through the introduction of the
For those planning a Vietnam trip during Golden Week, late April to May is a good season, but in popular areas like Da Nang and Sapa, hotel occupancy has reached 90%. We recommend booking early. On the business side, since the Vietnamese government is prioritizing the development of four- and five-star hotels and premium resorts, business opportunities are expanding in the hotel operation, food, and retail sectors.
Linkage with air route expansion
Supporting VNAT's growth scenarios is airlines' route expansion. Air passenger numbers in Q1 2026 were 24.1 million (up 16% year on year), of which international routes surged to 13.9 million (up 19%).VietJet's Japan routesalong with Vietnam Airlines' direct Hanoi–Amsterdam flight (scheduled to launch June 16) and international-route entry by the emerging Sun PhuQuoc Airways—expansion on the supply side is pushing scenario achievement forward.
What's especially notable in the Q1 data is that Phu Quoc Island topped 1 million foreigners in the first four months of 2026.Phu Quoc's visa exemption measuresupports this figure.
| Classification | Passengers | Year on year |
|---|---|---|
| Total passengers | 24.1 million | +16% |
| Domestic flights | 10.2 million | +12% |
| International routes | 13.9 million | +19% |
Summary—the keys to achieving the scenario are infrastructure and repeat visitors
VNAT's 2026 positive scenario (25 million foreigners, 150 million domestic) is within range judging by the Q1 results. But the keys to achieving it are the pace of infrastructure development and a higher repeat-visitor rate. The dividing line between the positive and negative outcomes will be set by how far the Tourism Law amendment, the establishment of overseas promotion bases, and accelerated digitization progress.
Those considering a Vietnam trip during Golden Week should,along with the news on the opening of the Da Nang beach season,secure their accommodation now, we recommend.
